US-Philippines Alliance Set for Reinforcement Under Trump 2.0 Amid Regional Challenges
As the political landscape shifts with the upcoming 2024 United States presidential election, the US-Philippines alliance is poised for a significant reinforcement under a potential Trump 2.0 administration. While both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have expressed commitments to the alliance, the real test will lie in how each candidate approaches the partnership amid existing regional flashpoints and the need to follow through on past commitments.
The Philippines, a key player in the US-led alliance system, finds itself in a unique position as it navigates the election. With both candidates pledging support for the alliance, the Filipino government is seeking clarity on their respective approaches. Harris is viewed as a proponent of strategic continuity, having previously shown support for the alliance during her tenure. On the other hand, Trump’s administration is remembered for its concrete deterrence measures, particularly concerning the rising influence of China—a bipartisan concern in US politics.
A Familiar Path with Trump 2.0
The prospect of a Trump 2.0 administration is met with optimism in the Philippines for two main reasons. First, there’s a sense of familiarity; the Philippines successfully managed relations with Trump during his first term from 2017 to 2020. Second, many of Trump’s potential cabinet nominees are known for their hawkish stance on China, which aligns with the Philippines’ strategic interests.
However, the Philippines anticipates changes in US foreign policy dynamics under Trump. His “transactional” approach may lead to discussions about burden-sharing within the alliance, particularly regarding defense assurances and military assets. This could result in intensified cooperative activities, such as the Balikatan and Kamandag exercises, joint civilian patrols, and an expanded deterrence umbrella against China.
Engagement with Third-Party Entities
As the US becomes more vocal in calling for third-party engagement in the region, the Philippines expects increased involvement from entities like the European Union. While individual EU states may have differing policies towards China, some officials have echoed Trump’s anti-China stance, which aligns with the Philippines’ position. This shared perspective could foster greater collaboration within the alliance framework.
In a recent congratulatory call to Trump, Philippine President Bongbong Marcos Jr. highlighted the incoming president’s support for the alliance, signaling a commitment to high-level exchanges and continued backing for Philippine positions, particularly regarding the South China Sea and the Maritime Zones Act.
Strategic Objectives and Modernization
Looking ahead, the Philippines aims to achieve key strategic objectives for the alliance over the next four years. Central to this is the modernization of the alliance, as outlined in the 2023 Bilateral Defense Guidelines (BDG). The modernization effort, initiated during the Biden and Duterte administrations, focuses on three main goals: institutionalizing the alliance through deeper engagement, enhancing military cooperation, and addressing non-traditional security issues such as nuclear energy, maritime domain awareness, and cybersecurity.
Recent achievements, including the signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and the establishment of the Japan-Philippines-US trilateral partnership, underscore the momentum in strengthening the alliance. These developments are designed to promote a rules-based order in the region and enhance integrated deterrence against potential threats.
Addressing Concerns and Clarifying Commitments
Despite the optimism, the Philippines has pressing concerns that it hopes the Trump 2.0 administration will address. The BDG emphasizes the importance of ASEAN centrality and inclusion in security discussions, which must be respected by the US. Additionally, clarity on economic policy pronouncements and the direction of initiatives like the Luzon Economic Corridor and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is crucial.
A priority for the Philippines is to clarify the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), specifically what actions would trigger its provisions in the face of grey zone activities and cyber threats. Recent statements from US defense officials affirm their commitment to fulfilling obligations under Article 5, but further delineation of the US’s role in regional contingencies is necessary.
Conclusion: A New Chapter in the Alliance
As the Philippines prepares for the potential return of Trump to the White House, the future of the US-Philippines alliance hangs in the balance. With a shared commitment to countering China and a focus on modernizing the partnership, both nations stand to benefit from a strengthened alliance. However, navigating the complexities of regional dynamics and ensuring clear commitments will be essential for the alliance to thrive in the coming years. The Philippines remains hopeful that under Trump 2.0, the alliance will not only endure but flourish, reinforcing its strategic position in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
